MotoGP - Is Pedro Acosta the MotoGP favorite at the Japanese GP? "I don't expect anything!"

The MotoGP world is essentially focused on one person this weekend: Marc Marquez . The Spanish superstar has the chance to be crowned world champion for the first time since 2019 on Sunday and has now set this as his clear goal . It's clear that Marquez currently commands all the headlines. Yet a fellow countryman of the 32-year-old from Cervera would have deserved the spotlight on Thursday just as much.

We're talking, of course, about Pedro Acosta . The current KTM factory rider took pole position at the Japanese Grand Prix last year for the only time in his MotoGP career and was on course for his first victory in the premier class for a long time in the sprint before ending up in the gravel trap due to a " stupid mistake " with three and a half laps to go. A missed opportunity, because the youngster from Mazarron, who was still riding for GasGas-Tech3 at the time, hasn't come that close to the top step of the podium since. Is there a chance for redemption at the same venue twelve months later?

Acosta has to be considered among the favorites ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix , and not just because of his performance last year. Since the 2025 summer break at the latest, the number 37 car has been on the rise, missing the top five only in the Hungarian sprint due to a crash and in the San Marino GP due to a broken chain . Only Marc Marquez (168) and Marco Bezzecchi (99) have scored more World Championship points than Acosta (89) from the last five race weekends. So, the signs are good that there could be some action again in Motegi.

However, Acosta didn't want to hear about a possible favorite role on Thursday. "Yes, last year I was competitive here from the very beginning. But let's wait and see what happens this year. If I'm honest, I'm not expecting anything at the moment. Let's just wait until Friday and work hard," the 21-year-old KTM rider said, downplaying his chances in the MotoGP 'Gear Up' format. Why was he so pessimistic? "Our bike has changed a lot, has better balance now. Last year we were strong on the brakes, this year we're not quite as strong."

With its many slow 90- or 180-degree corners, Motegi's Mobility Resort is one of the classic stop-and-go circuits on the MotoGP calendar, where hard braking plays a key role alongside corner exit. Therefore, the modified braking behavior of the KTM RC16 could have a negative impact on Acosta's performance in Motegi. At the same time, however, the improved balance could also improve lap times in other sections of the track, and the orange bike's ability to still perform on stop-and-go circuits in 2025 was already demonstrated at the home round in Spielberg. There, Acosta took third and fourth places, while Brad Binder and Enea Bastianini also competed at the front, finishing fifth and seventh, respectively.

Perhaps even more would have been enough at the Red Bull Ring had qualifying not gone awry – yet again. After second place in practice and third in FP2, Acosta only managed seventh place on the grid. "Q2 is currently our weak point. We're always in the top five until qualifying, and then we only make it to the third row," lamented the 2023 Moto2 champion. KTM needs to improve in precisely this area by the end of the season, because "we lose a lot of time in the early stages of the race due to overtaking. While that's pretty nice to watch on TV, it's not so good for the race result."

Motegi could therefore be a perfect opportunity, as it was the last time Acosta found himself on the front row. If he can repeat that feat, he can certainly look toward the sprint and Grand Prix with more optimism than he does now. But what do you think: Can Acosta once again challenge for the race win at the Japanese GP? Share your predictions in the comments!